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The department’s Census Bureau tracks estimates each month. Retail Dive provides the numbers for key segments, and their year-over-year progress, or decline.
Editor’s Note: Comparisons for individual segments are updated each month to reflect the government’s revisions to its year-ago figures. A full methodology for how Retail Dive tracks retail sales figures is included at the bottom of this page.
Every month, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau releases its first calculation of the previous month’s retail sales. At Retail Dive, we report on the results for core retail segments, (minus food, auto and fuel), using year-over-year comparisons.
Learn more about our methodology
Retail Dive calculates “total retail sales” of core segments, as well as what the Commerce Department calls “Nonstore retailers.” That includes e-commerce, mail order and infomercials, but also revenue from subsectors not generally considered traditional retail, including vending machines, home delivery (including newspapers and home heating oil), door-to-door solicitation, in-home demonstrations and portable stalls like non-food street vendors. Year-over-year comparisons use the most recent revisions to estimates; year-to-date numbers use only advanced numbers.
Data from U.S. Census Bureau, Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey
- March 2024 Total monthly sales: $245.21B Retail sales in March soared 5.3% year over year in the sectors tracked by Retail Dive, beating inflation and signaling consumer strength, according to some analysts. E-commerce rose an even more robust 5.6%, according to numbers released Monday by the U.S. Commerce Department. “Retail sales aren’t increasing just because prices are going up,” Bankrate Senior Industry Analyst Ted Rossman said in emailed comments. “Americans are actually buying more stuff. This is one of the strongest retail sales reports we’ve seen in the past couple of years. ”The results should dispel worries that consumer spending has slumped, according to Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. Pandemic-related support has ended and much of the savings from that is gone, but employment and wage growth are strong, he said in emailed comments. Not all analysis was so upbeat. The National Retail Federation, which now uses credit card data rather than the government’s numbers, also noted the strong job market and wage gains, but said many consumers remain focused on value. As a result, “retailers are having to keep prices as low as possible,” according to a statement from NRF CEO Matthew Shay. The group found that retail sales in March, excluding restaurants, automobiles and fuel, rose 2.92% year over year. Consumer reticence showed up in certain sectors. Home goods sales plummeted 8%, sporting goods sales fell 4% and electronics sales fell 1.5%. Apparel retailers had a good month, with sales up 3.1%, but that couldn’t prevent essentially flat sales at department stores. “The sluggish housing market is still sapping demand, as is weaker confidence in making big-ticket purchases,” GlobalData Managing Director Neil Saunders said in emailed comments. Temporary lifts like an early Easter and higher-than-usual tax refunds helped retailers in March, GlobalData found. Moody’s Ratings expects consumer spending “to moderate slowly due to lessening optimism about employment prospects and future conditions, still-high costs of living, and elevated borrowing rates,” according to emailed commentary from Moody’s Ratings Vice President of Corporate Finance Mickey Chadha. Rossman and Chadha also warned about growing credit card debt, which in Q4 topped $1 trillion, and rising delinquencies .“Overall, March continues to point to a reasonable year for retail,” GlobalData’s Saunders said. “However, signs of a more constrained consumer continue to abound beneath the headline numbers.”
- February 2024 Total monthly sales: $222.65B In February, which had an extra day this year, retail sales in the segments covered by Retail Dive rose 6.9% year over year, as e-commerce surged 10.6%, according to numbers released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Commerce .“Retailers of physical goods are encountering consumers who are being especially thoughtful about how much they spend, especially with higher costs in many areas of their lives and a lingering holiday debt hangover,” Bankrate Senior Industry Analyst Ted Rossman said in emailed comments. The National Retail Federation, which has switched to using credit card data rather than figures from the federal government, calculated that core retail sales (excluding restaurants, autos and gas) rose 6.69% year over year in February. NRF CEO Matthew Shay attributed the result to “a strong job market and increases in real wages. ”Taking out the extra leap year day, core retail sales (minus restaurants, auto and gas) rose 1.8%, the lowest rate of growth since last April, according to GlobalData research. “It underlines the fact that consumers continue to be very careful and cautious in their buying habits and are shopping and spending more modestly, especially in certain categories,” GlobalData Managing Director Neil Saunders said in emailed comments. Indeed, various segments showed weakness and strength in the period. Home goods continued its post-pandemic slide in February, with sales down 6.3%, and sporting goods sales remained relatively flat, falling 0.03%.But apparel sales were up 4.6%, helping push department store sales up a slim 0.3%. Clothing volumes have been up as consumers continue to refresh their closets, according to Saunders. But shoppers also continue to pull back from department stores, to the benefit of off-price stores, he said. “The reluctance to pay full price remains strong, which is why many clothing retailers are having to discount to stimulate demand,” he said. “Fortunately, margins currently allow for this as supply chain costs are coming down. ”Despite such signs, it’s too early in the year to know how reluctant consumers will continue to be this year, according to Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “Consumers have the money, as inflation-adjusted incomes have been rising, so the question is, have consumers grown cautious?” he said in emailed comments. “It’s too soon to say, but with inflation stuck for now above 3% and the jobs market growing tighter that’s a possibility. Still, the American consumer has been underestimated in the past and retail spending remains above the pre-pandemic trend, so no need to sound alarm bells yet.”
- January 2024 Total monthly sales: $224.43B In the segments covered by Retail Dive, retail sales in January rose 3.8% year over year, based on figures released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Various analysts deemed this a decent performance, but one that suggests some slowing in consumer spending this year. E-commerce surged 8.2%.“Essentially, the mini retail boom at the end of 2023 was built on shaky foundations that are not carrying forward into this new year,” GlobalData Managing Director Neil Saunders said in emailed comments. Bad weather may have kept some shoppers out of stores, analysts said. But January may also have brought on a financial hangover for U.S. consumers, who were already carrying a record level of credit card debt, for longer periods of time, before the holidays began, according to Bankrate Senior Industry Analyst Ted Rossman. Households added another $143.1 billion to card balances in Q4, with some $55.6 billion added in December alone, according to GlobalData research. While noting January’s sluggish retail sales, economists at Wells Fargo and the Navy Federal Credit Union said that relatively strong jobs and wages will likely shore up consumer spending to some extent this year, mitigating any slowdown. However, volumes were down 0.8% in the month, after growing 0.9% in December, according to GlobalData.“ Again, this dip bears all the hallmarks of shoppers who are cutting back and living more within their means,” Saunders said. “The key question is whether this volume slide continues into the months ahead or whether it simply represents consumers taking a breath after a period of elevated consumption. ”Some retailers fared better than others, with sporting goods and hobby stores dropping 1.8%, electronics down 5.5% and home goods stores plunging 7.5%. Apparel sales edged up 1.4%, but that did little for department stores, which fell 5.1%, in part because budget-minded consumers continue shifting to off-price stores, according to Saunders.“Many of the problems postponed at the back end of last year are now becoming more significant,” he said. “This does not mean that 2024 will be a disaster, but it does signal a tougher and bumpier year than 2023.”
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